Date: 14/06/2019
The following is another brief summary of what is in store for a 'state that never was a state', Anythony Lewis, Columnist, Christian Science Monitor , regarding Pakistan during height of Pak's atrocities in E Bengal, now Bangladesh. Like E Bengal- E Pakistan then, at present hapless people of Baluchistan are facing similar travails.
Interested, you may get the whole book from the publisher, see below.
In essence "The basic argument that flows from the report is that Pakistan is likely to remain unstable because of inherent weaknesses in its political, economic and security policies. The absence of any long-term shared vision of Pakistan, the over-securitization of the state apparatus because of its obsession with India as a threat and an enemy, and the state’s ambivalence towards the phenomenon of Islamic radicalism will keep Pakistan in a state of chronic turmoil. The report suggests a set of policy alternatives for India to deal with the consequences of an unstable Pakistan, on a long term basis."
We may add also to above given continuing attacks on India on one hand and continuing persecution of Baluchis, and many sects of Muslims with in Pakistan along with those in regions like Gilgit, Baltistan and recently Hunza people who are mostly Shias, that there ought to be lasting solution before the present further deteriorates to the detriment of all these persecuted people. Like what happened during liberation of Bangladesh which was preceded and then followed by gruesome attacks, hopefully the repeat of such catastrophe can be avoided . Please also see analysis by Sri K Upadhyaya below as well.
He rightly suggests now rather than later when situation deteriorates to same level as it happened in erstwhile E Pakistan , India should be prepared to deal with the situation well before a third party like China intrudes further and further via broken state of Pakistan.
"Is India prepared to deal with this scenario? India should read the writing on the wall and be prepared for the inevitable. The Government must try and build up a broad national consensus on how to deal with the fast evolving situation in the north-west of the sub-continent. Any uncertainty and indecision in this regard could have grave security and other implications for India. It is, perhaps, time for India to engage with Pakistan’s diverse communities and ethnic groups so that their actions do not come as a surprise.
Best wishes, cccccccc
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Whither Pakistan? Growing Instability and Implications for India
Whither Pakistan? Growing Instability and Implications for India
Author
Pakistan Project Report
2010
Publisher:
Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses
ISBN 81-86019-70-7
Price: ₹. 299/- Purchase Download E-copy
IDSA Task Force Report
Download E-Copy with Maps[PDF Size 10.5 MB]
About the Report
Pakistan has invariably evoked a great deal of interest among India’s strategic affairs community. Because of historical, geographical, economic and cultural linkages, developments in the neighbourhood have important implications for India’s politics, economy and security. This is especially true in the case of Pakistan. Recent developments in Pakistan have been a cause of concern for all the countries concerned about its future. Given the need for better understanding of developments in Pakistan, IDSA launched its Pakistan Project in the year 2009. The project team began its work in March 2009 and has been meeting regularly to discuss various developments in Pakistan. This is the first report produced by the team and it was reviewed by a panel of experts in January 2010 and finalized with their inputs and suggestions.
The basic argument that flows from the report is that Pakistan is likely to remain unstable because of inherent weaknesses in its political, economic and security policies. The absence of any long-term shared vision of Pakistan, the over-securitization of the state apparatus because of its obsession with India as a threat and an enemy, and the state’s ambivalence towards the phenomenon of Islamic radicalism will keep Pakistan in a state of chronic turmoil. The report suggests a set of policy alternatives for India to deal with the consequences of an unstable Pakistan, on a long term basis.
Contents
FOREWORD
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS
PREFACE
CHAPTER I
Politics in Pakistan: A Discordant Quartet
CHAPTER II
Provinces of Pakistan: Politics, Militancy and Ethnic Nationalism
CHAPTER III
Pakistan’s Foreign Policy: Travails of Uncertainty
CHAPTER IV
From Islamisation to Talibanisation: Possible Lebanonisation?
CHAPTER V
The Economy of Pakistan: Structural Weaknesses
CHAPTER VI
Civil-Military Relations: Army as the Final Arbiter
CHAPTER VII
Pakistan’s Counter-insurgency Campaign: An Assessment
CHAPTER VIII
Pakistan’s Nuclear & Missile Programmes: On a Short Fuse?
CHAPTER IX
Pakistan’s Relations with India: The Unending Quest for Parity
CHAPTER X
Pakistan 2020: Possible Scenarios and Options
CHAPTER XI
Dealing with An Unstable Pakistan: India’s Options
APPENDICES
Appendix I
Profiles of Some Terror Groups Operating in Pakistan
Appendix II
The Image of Pakistan in Media
Appendix III
Economic Indicators of Pakistan
Task Force Members
Arvind Gupta is Lal Bhadur Shastri Chair at Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA), New Delhi, India.
Alok Bansal is currently Executive Director, National Maritime Foundation, New Delhi, India. He was earlier Research Fellow at Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA), New Delhi, India.
Ashok K Behuria is Research Fellow at Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA), New Delhi, India.
C.V. Sastry is Research Fellow at Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA), New Delhi, India.
Harinder Singh is Research Fellow at Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA), New Delhi, India.
P.K. Upadhayay is Consultant at Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA), New Delhi, India.
Smruti S Pattanaik is Research Fellow at Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA), New Delhi, India.
Sumita Kumar is Senior Research Associate at Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA), New Delhi, India.
Sushant Sarin is Consultant at Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA), New Delhi, India.
Research Assistance Provided By Kartik Bommakanti is Research Asistant, at Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses(IDSA), New Delhi, India.
Medha Bisht Research Asistant at Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA), New Delhi, India.
Shamshad Khan Research Asistant at Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA), New Delhi, India.
Imtiyaz Majid Research Asistant at Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA), New Delhi, India.
Maps in the report are drawn by Vivek Dhanker, Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA), New Delhi, India.
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Analysis
Pakistan: Beginning of The Endgame? – Analysis
June 18, 2011 IDSA 0 Comments
By IDSA
By P. K. Upadhyay
The study on Pakistan brought out by the ‘Pakistan Project’ team of the IDSA in mid-2010 (‘Whither Pakistan? The Growing Instability and Implications for India’) had argued that Pakistan’s vexed ethnic, regional and economic fault-lines had gotten deeper and that, in addition, the rising tide of Deobandi sectarian zeal was tearing apart the national fabric. The militant Deobandi zealots, raised encouraged and nurtured by the Pakistani establishment (i.e. the Army and the ISI), were almost out of control in pursuit of their agenda of setting-up a Deobandi Islamic order in the country by supplanting the existing social and political edifice. The one chance that Pakistan had in averting this scenario was for the Army to succeed in quelling the Deobandi Islamists, as it was the last surviving national institution with the capability to overturn the rising tide of religious radicalism. There were, however, question marks over the Army’s desire and motivation to take on the Islamists.
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Events in the past few weeks suggest that there could now be serious doubts about the Army’s will and commitment to confront the Islamists due to the penetration of its own rank and file by the latter. Ironically this demon of radicalism springs out of the Pakistan Army’s continued espousal of the Zia-era doctrine of ‘total Jihadist wars’ that treated militant groups like Al Qaeda as its allies in the continuing and inevitable conflict between Dar-ul Islam and Dar-ul Harb. Osama-bin Laden and the Taliban leaders were part of Dar-ul Islam and even though the Pakistan Army had to be tactically aligned with the forces of Dar-ul Harb (i.e. USA and other western powers) for the present, links with OBL and his allies were being maintained in the hope that one day the jihad would eventually triumph. Therefore, hiding Osama and other Taliban leaders in safe sanctuaries and havens within Pakistani territory, even while operating with USA against them, was an acceptable and understandable contradiction. However, what has clearly been beyond comprehension for many in Pakistan’s civil and military establishments was the tacit help extended to the Americans in liquidating OBL.
Many in the Pakistan Army appear to view this as a sell-out by senior Commanders and that they have to pay for it. There are indications that such sentiments are very high and many middle level officers of the ranks of Colonel and others are openly confronting their superiors with these questions. The situation is serious enough to have forced General Kayani and other senior Corps Commanders to visit various units and try and assuage ruffled Islamic sentiments of the rank and file by declaring that they shared the latter’s sense of humiliation over the Abbottabad raid by US commandos, though now was no time to jettison ties with the US. Kayani is reported to have told senior officers last week (139th Corps Commanders’ Conference, Islamabad, June 9, 2011) that the Army was “drastically cutting” the number of US troops stationed in Pakistan and that US military aid to Pakistan should be diverted to civilian use as it was no longer essential for the Army. He also declared that US drone strikes in FATA were “not acceptable under any circumstances”.
The tone and tenor of the Army leadership’s statements and the wide media publicity they have been given is indicative of not just the extent of the feeling of hurt and betrayal that pervades Pakistan’s civil and military structures but also the alarm it seems to have set-off among the top-brass. Coming in the aftermath of attack on Mehran Naval Aviation Base in Karachi, the military’s statement is a tacit admission of the significant extent to which radical sentiments seem to have penetrated inside the Pakistani military establishment and the preparedness of these elements to openly challenge the military hierarchy and structures. One could be pardoned if one hears echoes of Anwar Sadat’s assassination in Egypt in recent (past few weeks) armed attacks on Pakistani military establishments from within its own ranks. It may be recalled that Sadat’s assassination showed that just a handful of religiously fired military men were enough to nearly bring down an established regime. In Pakistan this phenomenon had been there for past many years and, if any thing, elements that attacked Musharraf, the Karachi Corps Commander and Musharraf’s Prime Minister designate Shaukat Aziz, have only become stronger and bolder.
If these incidents and developments suggest a weakening of the Pakistani military structure, it could be the beginning of the endgame in Pakistan’s troubled polity. If the Army withers away then a fragmentation of Pakistan into a ‘Lebanonized’ state would become inevitable. The next two to three years are very crucial for Pakistan.
Is India prepared to deal with this scenario? India should read the writing on the wall and be prepared for the inevitable. The Government must try and build up a broad national consensus on how to deal with the fast evolving situation in the north-west of the sub-continent. Any uncertainty and indecision in this regard could have grave security and other implications for India. It is, perhaps, time for India to engage with Pakistan’s diverse communities and ethnic groups so that their actions do not come as a surprise.
Originally published by Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (www.idsa.in) at ...
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