...........WHY ARE WE UP TO A PUDDLE, WITHOUT A PADDLE?
.................. By S.P. Attri (USA)
1. Lots of midnight oil is being burned at this very time, by some very smart people in India, to deal with the Hamletian Question: " To war or Not to war, that is the question."
2. Dr. Rajaram recommends having ( before the onset of hostilities) a clear picture of what exactly it is that we want to achieve, and then go after it to get the maximum out of the enemy at minimumn cost. The recommendation is logical, but life is never quite simple, we need to be aware of some convolutions and avoid getting ourselves in a quandary. The biggest convolution is the pleasure/displeasure of the BOSS. The Indian Leaders have been trying to get a nod (or at least an Indirect Wink) from the Boss, but they are Not getting it.
3. There is a joke in the US ( every Yank over the age of 12 knows it), which articulates as follows:
"You don't have to be smart in order to be a Boss, all you need to do is to be An A**-Hole."
The US may be an A**-Hole, but it is still the Boss, and the Only Boss (the Only Super-Power) of the world at this time, its military might stretches across all oceans of the world, it can quickly "pull an Iraq" on anybody that manages to irritate it sufficiently. It is not a mark of smartness, to get on the SH**-List of the Boss. Additionally, the US threat is not limited to its military might, the US is in possession of lots of other sways and swings ( raw powers), that enable it to activly control/ manipulate things in the world, it can deny, defeat, or defer the acquisition of technology by any nation, that it does not like, for whatever the reason.
The US has procedures in place, to execute sanctions relating to Nuclear, Missile, and Dual-Usage technologies. The US can label any high-tech item as a Dual-Usage item, whose export it wants to control. We need to be aware that US controls the export of technology, from nearly every European Power ( this includes Russia and Israel as well), US Control also extends to Asian powers such as Japan and South Korea.
When the Boss has this Proportion of Power, we cannot treat him in a perfunctory manner. We want to stay out of hot water (with the Boss), particularly when there is no need for it, there are legitimate/smart ways around it.
4. First, if the US had any smarts, they would enlist India's Assistance ( and not Pakistan's), in its Anti-Terrorism War. The wide-of-the-mark choice of Pakistan, for the mission of Anti-Terrorism, puts one strike against the US, right off the bat, it is barking at the wrong tree. Sending Pakistan to take care of terrorism (Islamic Terrorism), is like sending a goat to take care of cabbage ( my apologies to Nikita Sergeivich Krushchev, for the usage of his homely expression). Pakistan trains Jehadis and Terrorists in its Madrassas, not to help the US, but to build its Islamic Empire, and finish off the Hateful Kafirs of the World, US included. The Islamic Clergy Of Pakistan repeatedly identifies US, as the biggest Kafir, and the biggest enemy of Islam. Pakistan is not, nor can it ever be, in the business of helping out the Non-Moslem Kafirs (such as the US) of the world. What makes the US think that it can stage-manage the co-operation of Muslim Population of Pakistan, and defy all the odds?
Of course, Pakistan does opportunistically extend lip service to the contrary, but it cannot deliver what it proclaims, it cannot side with a Kafir-Country or a Kafir-Population, that would be a betrayal of its Islam. Consequently, a miracle is required, to make Pakistan crack down on its self-created and self-trained Jehadis and Terrorists. These Jehadis do not operate in a vacuum either, they have strong support from Pakistani Mullahs, Maulvies, Military Personnel, Pakistani Politicians, Pakistani Bureaucrats, and Tribal Leaders all across Pakistan. Mushy's Phoney-Promises of crack-down on the Terrorists, do not square with the ground reality of Pakistan in general, and the reality of the Power of the 3-M company of Pakistan in particular, the Mullahs, the Military, and the Militant. The US's reliance on Mushy's Promises, has no basis in the reality of Pakistan. In Yanki terminology, it is a Non-Starter.
5. But the US has never been accused of making the right choices, like the Agha Khans, they have a reputation for betting on the wrong horse. The horse that the US is betting on for terrorism-control is Pakistan, US won't be talked out of its choice, particularly when there are dummies like Yo-Yo Colon Powell in Bush's Cabinet, unfortunately Bush is a poor judge of people, he should have fired Yo-Yo long long age, but has not done so; neither the Indian Leaders nor the Israeli Leaders can stand Yo-Yo. Consequently, at this time, India is being bombarded with copious advice and Psy-War, not only by Mushy and his cohorts, but by the US and Western Europe as well. Ninety percent of their advice, their nightmarish vision, and their ravings about Nuclear-Annihilation are reserved for India, ten percent only is being offered to Pakistan (even though it is well known that Pakistan is much more vulnerable). In short, India is being worked over like no body's business, but Pakistan stays un-touched. Strangely enough, both the US and Europe have been "loudly" advising their citizens to leave Inda. Hardly any or "barely audible" similar advice is being passed on to their citizens living in Pakistan.
6. Why is this lopsided, disgraceful diplomatic tour de disgrace, being awarded to India? The West's pock-marked Argument lacks logic-connection, it exposes the flustering and floundering that the West is engaging in, which is that if you cannot solve a problem, then enlarge it. But to India, this Disgusting Advice is more than a Pain In The Neck. It is a shot in the arm of Dictator Mushy, and boosts the arrogance of his Gangster Armed Forces, it creates doubt in the minds of some Indians, and alarms the International Community, some of whom jump aboard the bandwagon to lecture India on the dangers of Nuclear War. Pakistan largely escapes this flak. Why are the US and the West working overtime, to lecture India on Nuclear War, why are they leaving Pakistan to its own devices?What exactly is US policy towards India and Pakistan?
When we examine this question, we notice that the US have been consistently following a Foreign Policy that they devised for themselves some time ago, to deal with the countries of India and Pakistan. It is exact same policy that Eisenhower and John Foster Dulles invented in the fifties, it has not changed one bit since its inception, regardless of who is in the White House, and which political party happens to be holding the reins of power. This policy is not going to change, unless India ram-rods a change to it, by unhesitatingly demonstrating a few indisputable capabilities of its own.
7. During the last few decades, especially of the Cold War Era, Pakistan has been willing to play ball with the US, India has not. Pakistan has provided to the US, important military bases and facilities for intelligence gathering. India has not, and has preferred to stay Non-Aligned/Non-Committed. This essential Indian difference from Pakistan, has been lost neither on the US Congress nor on the US Presidents.
It is no exaggeration that Pakistan has been US's Pet Dog from Day One. You don't kick your Pet Dog just because he barks excessively in the morning or because he bites a few neighbors. You rapidly learn to live with his irritations, it appears the US has learned not only to live with Pakistani annoyances, but to give a Nelson's Eye to such things as, Pakistan's Terrorism, its clandestine acquisitions of nuclear materials and missile technology, precisely because of its status as US's Pet Dog. It can also be observed that any technology, that India tries to buy openly in the Free International Market, gets the severest scrutiny from the US, for precisely the same reason in reverse, that India is not the Pet Dog of the US and, therefore, must be muzzled.
Because these unhandy inconveniences of your pet dog, are tolerated by any sincere Dog-Lover, they do not constitute strong enough reason for the US to nudge from its long-established Foreign Policy, which embraces a strong tilt towards Pakistan, and a slant away from India.
8. Another entity that has escaped our notice is an American National Habit, this entiry escapes our notice because it is expertly camouflaged by bogus, silly, superficial, and perfunctory slogans (especially of Democracy and Human Rights etc etc). This American National Habit is the American Respect for Strength and Competence above all else. What we have failed to notice all these years is, that Strength and Competence, counts far more in American heart and mind, than the principle or practice of somebody's democracy. Of course, you will never get any American to admit to this truth and reality, but it is a solid reality, we Indians better get a good handle on it, to comprehend what exactly is going on around us, in this complex world of ours.
It is precisely because of this particular American National Characteristic, that Communist China which has a large military machine and has repeatedly shown its willingness to use it, enjoys so much prestige in the US, and repeatedly gets the MFNS (most favored nation status) from the US, inspite of its communistic system of government, and its terrible human rights record.
9. India, on the other hand, inspite of its scrupulous democratic system, has been able to open neither the MFNS door, nor the US permission to join the Pacific Club of nations, nor to get a Security Council Seat. Many examples can be cited to illustrate India's diplomatic failures at the UN, including attempts to get Pakistan declared as a Terrorist State.We Indians may justifiably ask ourselves, what the hell are we doing wrong, who gives a damn about us, who are our friends and who are not, who are we kidding, and for what?
Having listed all of the above, what is the method for India to extricatge itself out of this predicament, and achieve its proper place in the community of nations?
10 First of all, India needs to understand that straining lungs, to tout itself as a Non-Aligned Nation or to get Pakistan declared as a Terrorist state, is futile. This activity has not worked for us in the past, and is not going to work for us in future either, for reasons that are entirely outside of India's control. The affairs of the world are complex and convoluted, in the international arena, jungle law is still the name of the game.
What can work for us, are things that have the trade mark of India's Control, they require catching the bull by the horns. Instead of futily trying to get Pakistan declared as a Terrorist state, we need to conduct our own Back-Door/Covert (AKA the Proxy-War) War against Pakistan, in its provinces of Sind, Balochistan, and NWFP (Northwest Frontier Province). The Sindhi people, especially the Mohajirs, are "totally fed up" with the Punjabi-Dominated Pakistani Army, lording over them. We can provide them powerful help to get rid of Paki-Punjab Shackles. We can pull the same thing in Balochistan, and Pukhtoonistan (the NWFP province of Pakistan). For decades, the Pushto-speaking Pathans (the Pukhtoons ) of the NWFP province of Pakistan, have been trying to create Pakhtoonistan. Instead of helping the Sindhis, Balochs, and Pukhtoons, we have been twiddling our thumbs.
11. This Covert-War ought to be the most important component, of our total war strategy against Pakistan, this Covert-War has to be sustained, not sporadic. Plenty of associates and accomplices are available in these three provinces, we can hire them in hundreds and thousands, sneak them in wherever we like.
Assassinations of Paki Soldiers, Officers, Administrators, Paki Political Leaders, can be conducted on a masive scale. Strikes can be staged in every city of these disgruntled provinces. Acts of Terrorism, and Armed insurgencies, can be conducted in these three provinces of Pakistan, we can create plenty of hell in the heart-land of Pakistan. These activities when supplemented with massive doses of propaganda and dis-information, can destroy all loyalty of the populations to the Central Government of Pakistan. The ultimate result can only be the debility and destruction of the country and government of Pakistan.
The cost of this Covert-War is not only far far lower, than our cost of fighting the Paki Proxy War, but it also will keep Pakistan bleeding.We have been operating defensively, this is the wrong approach. Our Covert-War will change the name of the game, and put Pakistan on the defensive, and enable us a Level Playing Field against Pakistan. Our present conventional method of fighting Paki-Proxy War, is not very smart, it definitely needs to be supplemented by Indian Covert-War against Pakistan, immediately, resolutely, and on a sustained basis.
12. To give our Covert-War a practical shape, India needs to increase the budget of its RAW (Reseach And Analysis Wing, the India Intelligence Agency) by a factor of at least ten, provide enough funds to raise large cadres of Saboteurs and Disprupters, to vandalize and paralyse life inside the Pakistani provinces of Sind, Balochistan, and NWFP. India needs to move in quickly, to help the people of Sindh, Balochistan, and Pakhtoonistan (the NWFP province). India's resources for conducting Proxy-Wars (Back-Door Wars/Covert-Wars) against Pakistan, are far in excess of similar resources of Pakistan. We ought to embrace our weapon of Back-Door War against Pakistan, without further delay..
Many land and sea access routes to Sind and Balochistan exist, NWFP is also accessible. Many disgruntled and dis-satisfied groups of people in these three provinces, are ready for service, provided we are prepared to pay the price. They can give plenty of hell to Pakistan, and with Indian Help, can create infernal regions of underworld right inside Pakistan's Backyard. For decades, Pakistan has been carrying on a proxy war against India in Kashmir and Panjab, while we have been twiddling our thumbs. We ought to get going and pay back to Pakistan in the same coin, give Pakistan a taste of flattery, and let it feel the pain of devastation on its own soil. This will reduce Pakistan's Options to two, either it will call a halt to its Proxy-War against India, or shall face the punch of India's Much More Powerful Covert War.
13. Once India demonstrates that it can solve the problem of Paki Proxy-War, (without help from either the US , West, or the UN), it will dramatically alter Indo-American perceptions and relations, it will re-draw power equations. Talk alone does not cut any mustard with the US, the US wants to see results. Don't go by superficialties, because there will be a few Condemnation speeches and expressions of outrage. These are perfunctory utterances, a sort of mandatory knee-jerk reactions, and nothing more than that. But privately the US will respect India for its problem-solving efficiency, and its ability to conduct a Covert-War. This kind of efficiency always impresses people, especially the US, after that the offers of MFNS status, a seat in the Security Council, and other diplomatic niceties cannot be too far behind.
14. The inevitable question: Won't these proxy wars right inside the heartland of Pakistan, lead to the dimemberment of Pakistan? Certainly they will, but why should that be a problem for us. Pakistan already lost Bangladesh in 1971, the rotten apple of Remaining-Pakistan is weeping for further clean-up action of the same class of military dispatch, it needs to be dispatched towards its demise.
JAANWAR KO MARNE KAY LIYE, KHUD JAANWAR BAN-NA PARTA HAI (to kill an animal, you have to become a savage beast yourself)
Some Indians maintain that all we need to do is to wait, and Pakistan will break apart by itself, due to its internal dissensions. This view is romantic, it does not notice that Pakistan has enough military strength to put the Sindhis, Balochs, and the Pukhtoons in their place. We shall have to terrorize Pakistan, send death and destruction inside Sindh, Balochistan, and Pukhtoonistan, via a Covert-War, and put the butchers of Islam, under the barrel of gun, before Pakistan will break apart. The dismemberment of Bangladesh required Indian Help. We have no other choice with respect to Sindh, Balochistan, and Pukhtoonistan.
Instead of wasting our time on ridiculous arguments, let us get our act together, and get going on our Covert-War against Pakistan.We Hindus have witnessed the hell and havoc of Islam in India, during the last 1200 years, still we have not learned our lesson. We still have not grasped the kernel of truth, that wars are seldom won by respectable methods.
15. The US has been telling India:
Don't do what we have been doing ( in Afghanistan), don't imitate us, instead do what we tell you to do. India needs to tell the US politely, that this double-speak is Totally-Unacceptable. For good measure, and for the immediate future, India can start on the right foot, by declaring openly that it means business, that ( just as the US did in Afghanistan) it is fully-determined to crush the Terrorist-Bases in POK and elsewhere in Pakistan, with the use of force (no pussy-footing, and no mincing of words should be employed in this brinkmanship). What is sauce for the gander, is sauce for the goose, and this message should be communicated flat out for the benefit of the Boss (the US).
Once India does that, openly and honestly, you will observe a swift-shift in US attitude towards India. It will put US on the spot and force it to either Put Up Or Shut Up. The last thing that the US wants is a Nuclear War between India and Pakistan, we need to exploit this thin-skin vulnerabiliy of the US, for all that it is worth. In fact, the present time is a time of great opportunity for India, providedly India plays the Brinkmanship Astutely, Directly, and Non-Defensively. You can bet, that as a reaction to this Indian Brinkmanship, the US will issue a speedy notice to Pakistan, and will tell it flat out that:
"Either you will stop terrorism across the LOC, or we shall move our Anti-Terrorism headquarters from Pakistan to India." You can be sure that Mushy will get the meaning of this message with whirl-wind haste, and COMPLY ( with US request/threat) AT ONCE. What it boils down to, is the demise of the Monster of Pakistani Terrorism across the LOC.
16. Supposing our Brinkmanship does not work ( the chance of this happening is less than 5%, but is Not Zero), then what do we do?
..........Then we go to Plan B. What is Plan B?
Every time Pakistan sneaks in a few terrorists across the LOC into India, we go in HOT PURSUIT across the LOC into POK, grab a few kilometers of territory, and move the LOC West of the present LOC. We can take over the whole of POK by repeating these Hot Pursuits . This amounts to taking over POK in Installments. In the US, this procedure is known as taking over via "Salaami-Tactics." The state of Israel regularly uses this great technique of Hot Pursuit, it keeps moving its boundaries into Arab Lands. It is a Very Low-Risk technique, but it works. We can do the same. Hot Pursuit technique shall not peeve or provoke the Boss.
17. Not only that, the Hot Pursuit Technique has additional Pay-Offs. When we start conducting Hot Pursuits, and taking over POK and other Paki-Territories, the Sindhi, Baloch, and Pukhtoon revolts against Pakistan shall intensify, with the inevitable destiny (written in the book of fate), clearly identifiable as The Dismemberment Of Pakistan.
....................................... - Surinder Paul Attri